| Organizations are hobbled by beliefs that have | | | | what statisticians would say about their decisions. |
| always rested on faulty evidence. This essay aims | | | | Statisticians were assigned to follow the |
| to help you identify and check the critical | | | | executives around for six months to watch them |
| assumptions your organization is relying on. | | | | in action. Almost without exception the executives |
| The misconception stall is particularly harmful | | | | treated random events as representing what was |
| because some of your best people already realize | | | | typically occurring in the business. |
| that you are operating on faulty assumptions and | | | | Executives were constantly trying to eliminate |
| are losing faith in the future of the organization | | | | these few random variations in performance. All |
| and the quality of its leadership. Soon, you may | | | | this scurrying around kept the executives from |
| find recovery from your mistakes is made more | | | | having time to work on more promising |
| difficult because your most talented people have | | | | opportunities for gain. Despite learning this |
| left for other work. | | | | profound insight, the organization faltered by |
| MISCONCEPTION: The Danger of False | | | | continuing to mistake the actual trends. The |
| Assumptions Abounds | | | | lesson: Be sure you are focusing on the areas |
| How is a misconception stall different from a | | | | where action will do the most good. |
| disbelief stall? A disbelief stall is based on | | | | This example also shows how wide the gap can |
| something that was once true, but no longer is. A | | | | be between perceptions of management quality |
| misconception stall is based on a belief that was | | | | and actual effectiveness, another example of |
| never true. Here are some examples of harmful | | | | misconceptions. You have probably noticed the |
| misconceptions: | | | | frequency by which "widely admired" companies |
| The future can be accurately forecast. | | | | rapidly fall from grace as performance plummets. |
| Competitors will stand still while we make | | | | When the CEO Speaks, People Take Action |
| rapid progress. | | | | Management authority Peter Drucker told us that |
| Agreement among colleagues means that | | | | one of the most dangerous beliefs in organizations |
| issues are understood. | | | | is that an increase in brains comes with being |
| Customers will make the decisions in the | | | | promoted. Here's verification of that observation: |
| same ways they always have. | | | | CEO's executive assistants at selected companies |
| All long-held assumptions and beliefs should be | | | | were asked what was the single, most important |
| questioned. Ask yourself: | | | | thing their CEOs could do better. The aides spoke |
| Is it really true? | | | | almost as one in reporting that anything the CEO |
| If it isn't true, why do people believe it to be | | | | said was treated as gospel. Underlings, for |
| true? | | | | instance, scramble to make changes even when |
| What's needed to persuade people to change | | | | the CEO was only asking an innocent question. |
| their beliefs? | | | | The CEOs assume that the response would come |
| Round Out Your View | | | | at little or no cost from someone who already |
| When only an experiment will do, cross-check | | | | had the answer. Some executive assistants |
| your idea in other ways to get a better sense of | | | | estimated that 25 percent of executive and |
| what you are about to try. Consider Columbus. | | | | managerial time in their companies was taken up |
| While some feared sailing west across the Atlantic | | | | with answering such casual inquiries and making |
| believing they would fall off the edge of the Earth, | | | | changes that hadn't, in fact, been requested. The |
| Columbus knew better. He had made a point of | | | | assistants wished someone would advise their |
| studying the early Viking explorations of North | | | | CEOs to stop asking casual questions and making |
| America. In fact, in 1477, 15 years before heading | | | | off-hand comments because the rest of the |
| toward the Caribbean, Columbus visited Iceland to | | | | organization operates on the misconception that |
| learn more about the northern "islands" across the | | | | these words are major priorities on which careers |
| Atlantic. | | | | will rise and fall. |
| Apply Sophisticated Thinking | | | | STALLBUSTERS |
| In his wonderful book, The Unschooled Mind (Basic | | | | Encourage Unmasking False Assumptions |
| Books, 1991), cognitive psychologist Professor | | | | A company had assumed for decades that |
| Howard Gardner argues that people usually think | | | | advertising would work only when demand was |
| at three different levels. Gardner defines the | | | | highest for its seasonally consumed food, yet |
| five-year-old's mind as the first level. | | | | others promoted similarly seasonable foods all |
| Five-year-olds usually live in a world where others | | | | year around. Eventually, an advertising test was |
| take care of them and keep them safe from | | | | run during the lean part of the year, and sales |
| harm. That belief persists when most people | | | | promptly took off. |
| become adults and prevents many from | | | | Here are questions to help you avoid making such |
| becoming independent, fully functioning adults. | | | | false assumptions: |
| Overprotection after age five makes matters | | | | What are the things that your organization |
| worse. Another common example of the | | | | assumes will almost always work? |
| five-year-old mind is that confident people falsely | | | | What are the things that your organization |
| believe that they are superior in every way to | | | | assumes will seldom or never work? |
| others. Ask any roomful of five-year-olds if they | | | | What are the things that your organization |
| are terrific at something and almost all will agree. | | | | assumes will probably happen? |
| The second level of thinking develops when | | | | What are the things that your organization |
| training, usually in high school and college, gives | | | | assumes will be unlikely to happen or will never |
| teens and young adults a grasp of sophisticated | | | | happen? |
| concepts that are counterintuitive to the | | | | On what beliefs are these assumptions |
| five-year-old's thought process. Here's the | | | | based? |
| problem: The student memorizes the concepts | | | | Have those beliefs been checked recently? |
| long enough to pass the examination. But Gardner | | | | Are those beliefs still true? |
| argues that relatively few adults reach the third | | | | Identify the False Assumptions That Need to Be |
| level of thinking where they can apply the | | | | Immediately Challenged |
| sophisticated concepts to real-life problems. In the | | | | Some misconceptions require more immediate |
| absence of that faculty, almost everyone reverts | | | | correction than others. Here are questions to help |
| to the five-year-old's misconceptions for making | | | | you set priorities for where to turn your attention |
| decisions. | | | | first: |
| A disciplinary expert can apply the principles | | | | Which false assumptions have large potential |
| learned in school to a real-life situation. But those | | | | consequences? |
| effectively working minds are few and far | | | | Where can your organization's actions make |
| between in most organizations. Imagine what | | | | the largest difference in offsetting false |
| could be accomplished if you consciously shed | | | | assumptions? |
| your five-year-old's misconceptions, applied | | | | When would you need to act to get the |
| sophisticated adult reasoning to expert knowledge, | | | | most benefit or avoid the most harm? |
| and questioned common assumptions of the | | | | What is the minimum evidence to indicate |
| prevailing five-year-old mind. | | | | that you should act immediately? |
| I'LL GET RIGHT ON IT | | | | Use Assumptions That Reflect Actual and |
| Even if people attempt to apply sophisticated | | | | Critically Sensitive Conditions |
| thinking, they will still jump to conclusions too | | | | Open your mind to new ways of thinking |
| often. If service was slow the last two times you | | | | about a volatile, unpredictable future with these |
| went to a given store, you may decide this store | | | | questions: |
| will always offer poor service and don't go back. | | | | What assumptions have worked best in the |
| Two experiences do not constitute a trend. It's | | | | past for organizations that operated in |
| possible that the manager was away on vacation | | | | circumstances somewhat like yours? |
| on both occasions and the rest of the employees | | | | Which of these assumptions fit your |
| took it easy. | | | | organization's values and style? |
| The executives of one award-winning | | | | Which of these assumptions would be |
| multibillion-dollar manufacturer were clearly | | | | received enthusiastically by users of your offering, |
| intelligent, well educated, and widely admired for | | | | customers, employees, partners, suppliers, |
| their decisions. Ever curious, these managers | | | | shareholders, lenders, and the communities you |
| wanted to measure the quality of their decisions. | | | | serve? |
| They knew good decision making has to reflect | | | | Copyright 2007 Donald W. |
| solid statistically based data, and they wondered | | | | |